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The Journal of Science of Food and Agriculture

Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Finchaa Sub-basin, Ethiopia

Author:Mekonnen H. Daba Date:January 31,2018 Hits:

Abstract

Climate change is possible to affect the water resources availability and hydrology of Finchaa Sub-basin. Climate change impacts are the main concern for sustainability of water management, water use activities and agricultural production throughout the world. Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the surface runoff of Finchaa sub-basin located in upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The General Circulation Model (GCM) derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) were used for the climate projection. The statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future surface runoff in of Finchaa sub-basin. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight decreasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in sub-basin for all three bench mark periods. The result reveal that, average annual rainfall in the watershed might reduce up to 9.84%, 23.29% and 41.51% and 9.27 %, 20.71% and 35.37% in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The average annual maximum temperature might increase by 0.250C, 0.600C and 1.090C and 0.500C, 0.260C and 0.860C in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for A2a and B2a emission scenario respectively. The average annual minimum temperature might increase by 0.30C, 0.800C and 0.920C and 0.40 0C, 0.66 0C and 1.10C in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for A2a and B2a emission scenario respectively. Impact analysis was made with the downscaled temperature and rainfall time series as input to the SWAT model for the future three benchmark periods. As a result, at the outlet of the watershed the projected on average annual runoff reduced by 4.29%, 10.62%, 18.07% and 8.27%, 8.58%, 16.69% for the 2020s,2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios respectively. This report includes strategy recommendations to communities, policy and decision makers for measuring and enhancing effective adaptation option for future climate change impacts on surface runoff. Such study provides appropriate insights into future surface water resources, to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change.

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Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Finchaa Sub-basin, Ethiopia
Mekonnen H. Daba*
Natural Resource Research Process, Bako Agricultural Research Center, Bako, Ethiopia
*Corresponding author, email: dabanok@gmail.com
How to cite this paper: Daba, M.H. (2018) Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Finchaa Sub-basin, Ethiopia. The Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2(1), 14-29.
http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/jsfa.2018.01.002
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