Abstract
With the outbreak of COVID-19, considerable attention has been attached to the trade of wild animals, which is suspected to be the cause of the pandemic. It is main concern of all nations to excavate factors responsible for such emergence in particular. As a response, we elaborate novel model TRIMM so as to reveal the correlation between wild animal markets and epidemic situation of major infectious diseases. The TRIMM is modified and extended from the well-known propagation model SIS. Specifically, comparing to the original model, the TRIMM model is relatively transparent and rigorous. Furthermore, the TRIMM model is specialized for indicating correlation between wildlife trading and epidemic situation of major infectious diseases. Noticing the complexity of transmission of infectious diseases in reality, our model put 9 factors into consideration. To be precise, we consider the number of susceptibles that infectives in contact with per unit of time, the probability that susceptibles infected after being exposed to infectives and the recovery probability as the key indicators. In order to verify the effectiveness and fully unleash the potential ability of our model, we modify TRIMM model by utilizing SIR propagation model. In this way, we finds our model functioning well in more realistic environment. Eventually, sensitivity analysis is adapted to the model. We discuss strengths and weaknesses and discuss our future work with TRIMM model.
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