Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science

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International Trade and Export Dynamics in Nigeria: An ARDL Vector Error Correction Analysis

Mukhtar Shuaibu1, Mohammed B. Adamu2, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi3,*, Kamal Kabiru Shehu4, Saidu Ibrahim Buba5

1Department of social sciences, Kebbi State Polytechnic, Dakingari, Kebbi state, Nigeria.

2Department of Economics, School of Social Management Science, Adamawa State Polytechnic, Yola Adamawa state, Nigeria.

3Department of Economics, Bayero University Kano, Kano, Kano state, Nigeria.

4Department of Economics, Federal University, Kashere, Gombe state, Nigeria.

5Department of Economics, Adamawa State College of Education, Hong, Adamawa state, Nigeria.

*Corresponding author: Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

Published: February 11,2022


Production patterns around the world have been significantly affected by international trade. Hence, countries have taken advantage of trade to produce for export what is not required by the domestic economy. This explains the large export dependence nature of some economies around the world. Global trade is associated with increase in worldwide standards of living because it sets in motion a worldwide division of labour and materials. This paper measures the factors that influence export in Nigeria. It measures the influence of factors such as exchange rate, inflation, interest, domestic saving, financial development, domestic credit to private sector, trade openness, per capita income, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), gross capital formation, national debt, agricultural output, manufacturing, electricity supply, physical capital and government expenditure. The paper used ARDL Error Correction Model for the analysis of the data. Data was collected for the period 1989 to 2019. The results of the analysis show that saving, interest rate, domestic credit, trade openness, per capital income, agriculture and manufacturing are favorable to export in Nigeria. But, inflation, exchange rate, FDI and government expenditure are not favorable to export. The negative relationship with FDI may be as a result of the fact that most FDI coming to Nigeria are not going to the export sector. Government expenditure also may not be targeting the export sector, instead focusing on the domestic economy. The paper recommends that Nigerian government shall further support domestic saving to private sector, provide more credit to the export sector and adopt policies that boost trade openness. In addition, government shall further develop agricultural and manufacturing sectors that serve as the core of Nigerian export sector. Nigeria government shall very well manage such macroeconomic variables as interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to ensure that they are not harmful to export.


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How to cite this paper

International Trade and Export Dynamics in Nigeria: An ARDL Vector Error Correction Analysis

How to cite this paper: Mukhtar Shuaibu, Mohammed B. Adamu, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi, Kamal Kabiru Shehu, Saidu Ibrahim Buba. (2022) International Trade and Export Dynamics in Nigeria: An ARDL Vector Error Correction Analysis. Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science6(1), 50-61.